Publications (FIS)

Uncertainties in land use data may have substantial effects on environmental planning recommendations

A plea for careful consideration

authored by: Felix Neuendorf, Julia Thiele, Christian Albert, Christina von Haaren
Abstract: A key challenge of environmental planning is to craft recommendations for future sustainable spatial development amid ubiquitous uncertainties. This paper aims to explore how different data uncertainties, usually unknown to the planner, may influence environmental planning recommendations. We apply a case study-based approach, in which we provide three illustrative examples of how data with different kinds and levels of uncertainty affect environmental assessments and, by that, the decision-support provided by environmental planning. The cases stem from different spatial levels in Germany and consider 'Regional soil-based climate change mitigation' in the region of Hannover, 'State-wide habitat conservation siting' in the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, and 'National renewable energy planning'. Based on the three examples, we discuss implications for planning practice and derive recommendations for further research. The three cases studies illustrate the substantial effects of data uncertainty on environmental assessments and planning recommendations derived from those results. We identify four problem constellations of dealing with data uncertainty in environmental planning that relate to the severeness of uncertainty impacts, the responsibility of the decision-maker, and the kinds of impacts that wrong decisions may have. We close with recommendations for further research, among others to develop robust and pragmatic methods for identifying the uncertainty levels in environmental data and assessment results.
Organisation(s): Institute of Environmental Planning
Institute of Economic and Human Geography
External Organisation(s): Ruhr-Universität Bochum
Type: Article
Journal: PLOS ONE
Volume: 16
ISSN: 1932-6203
Publication date: 24.11.2021
Publication status: Published
Peer reviewed: Yes
ASJC Scopus subject areas: General
Sustainable Development Goals: SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy, SDG 13 - Climate Action, SDG 15 - Life on Land
Electronic version(s): https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260302 (Access: Open)

BibTeX

@article{f0d74e5bb00144dd89ea71da858d2a34,
title = "Uncertainties in land use data may have substantial effects on environmental planning recommendations: A plea for careful consideration",
abstract = "A key challenge of environmental planning is to craft recommendations for future sustainable spatial development amid ubiquitous uncertainties. This paper aims to explore how different data uncertainties, usually unknown to the planner, may influence environmental planning recommendations. We apply a case study-based approach, in which we provide three illustrative examples of how data with different kinds and levels of uncertainty affect environmental assessments and, by that, the decision-support provided by environmental planning. The cases stem from different spatial levels in Germany and consider 'Regional soil-based climate change mitigation' in the region of Hannover, 'State-wide habitat conservation siting' in the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, and 'National renewable energy planning'. Based on the three examples, we discuss implications for planning practice and derive recommendations for further research. The three cases studies illustrate the substantial effects of data uncertainty on environmental assessments and planning recommendations derived from those results. We identify four problem constellations of dealing with data uncertainty in environmental planning that relate to the severeness of uncertainty impacts, the responsibility of the decision-maker, and the kinds of impacts that wrong decisions may have. We close with recommendations for further research, among others to develop robust and pragmatic methods for identifying the uncertainty levels in environmental data and assessment results. ",
author = "Felix Neuendorf and Julia Thiele and Christian Albert and {von Haaren}, Christina",
note = "Funding: This study was funded by the German Research Foundation (HA 3301/8-1, 250763334), https://www.dfg.de/en/index.jsp - FN, and the German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (FKZ 3515 82 4300), https://www.bfn.de/en.html, in cooperation with the German Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, - JT. The publication of this article was funded by the Open Access Fund of the Leibniz Universit{\"a}t Hannover. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.",
year = "2021",
month = nov,
day = "24",
doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0260302",
language = "English",
volume = "16",
journal = "PLOS ONE",
issn = "1932-6203",
publisher = "Public Library of Science",
number = "11",
}