Modeling the impact of global change on regional agricultural land use through an activity-based non-linear programming approach

verfasst von

Martin Henseler, Alexander Wirsig, Sylvia Herrmann, Tatjana Krimly, Stephan Dabbert

Abstract

Assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture is a new challenge for quantitative model-based policy analysis. The impact of climate change will vary strongly across regions depending on pre-existing climatic, agronomic, and political conditions. Most of the present modeling approaches, which aim to analyze the impact of global change on agriculture, deliver aggregated results both with regard to content and spatial resolution. To deliver results with a higher spatial resolution and to produce a more detailed picture of agricultural production, the county-based agro-economic model known as ACRE-Danube was developed. The German and Austrian part of the Upper Danube basin, a study area with great diversity in agricultural landscapes and climatic conditions, was chosen for study. For the analysis, two scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change were derived. The first and more economically and globally oriented scenario, termed "Full Liberalization," included significant temperature increases. The second and more environmentally and regionally oriented "Full Protection" scenario included a moderate temperature increase. Both scenarios produce different results regarding agricultural income and land use. While the developments in the Full Protection scenario are small, the Full Liberalization scenario yields extreme regional changes in agricultural income, an increase in cereal production and extensive grassland farming.

Organisationseinheit(en)

Institut für Umweltplanung

Externe Organisation(en)

Gemeinsame Forschungsstelle (GFS)
terra fusca Ingenieure - Billen, Lange, Lehmann
Universität Hohenheim

Typ

Artikel

Journal

Agricultural systems

Band

100

Seiten

31-42

Anzahl der Seiten

12

ISSN

0308-521X

Publikationsdatum

04.2009

Publikationsstatus

Veröffentlicht

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Nutztierwissenschaften und Zoologie, Agronomie und Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

SDG 2 – Kein Hunger, SDG 13 – Klimaschutzmaßnahmen, SDG 15 – Lebensraum Land

Elektronische Version(en)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2008.12.002 (Zugang: Geschlossen)