Publikationen (FIS)

Hydrological modeling of spatial and temporal variations in streamflow due to multiple climate change scenarios in northwestern Morocco

verfasst von
Siham Acharki, Soufiane Taia, Youssef Arjdal, Jochen Hack
Abstract

Climate change is one of the most important factors impacting hydrological regimes. In this paper, climate change impact on streamflow of Loukkos basin (northwestern Morocco) is evaluated using SWAT model for three future periods: near (2021–2040), mid (2041–2070), and far (2071–2100), compared to baseline 1981–2020. A set of bias-corrected climate models was used: five regional climate models (EURO-CORDEX), four global climate models (CMIP6) and their ensemble mean, under two representative concentration pathways respectively (RCP 4.5; RCP 8.5) and (SSP2-4.5; SSP5-8.5). Furthermore, SUFI-2 algorithm in SWAT-CUP was performed to calibrate (1981–1997), validate (1998–2015), and analyze uncertainty for each dataset at ten hydrological stations. In most stations, statistical performance indicated a good simulation, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) greater than 0.77 and percent bias (PBIAS) within ±10% on a monthly basis. Overall, 82% of models indicated that future climate could decline streamflow. The largest decrease would be for 2071–2100 and under RCP 8.5/SSP5-8.5. Our findings could help planners and policymakers in developing reasonable water management policies and climate change adaptation measures.

Organisationseinheit(en)
Institut für Umweltplanung
Externe Organisation(en)
Universite Abdelmalek Essaadi
Universite Ibn Tofail
Typ
Artikel
Journal
Climate Services
Band
30
Publikationsdatum
04.2023
Publikationsstatus
Veröffentlicht
Peer-reviewed
Ja
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete
Globaler Wandel, Atmosphärenwissenschaften
Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung
SDG 13 – Klimaschutzmaßnahmen
Elektronische Version(en)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100388 (Zugang: Offen)