Uncertainties in ecosystem services assessments and their implications for decision support

A semi-systematic literature review

verfasst von

Franziska Walther, David N. Barton, Jonas Schwaab, Jarumi Kato-Huerta, Bart Immerzeel, Mihai Adamescu, Erling Andersen, Martha Verónica Arámbula Coyote, Ildikó Arany, Mario Balzan, Adriana Bruggeman, Claudia Carvalho-Santos, Constantin Cazacu, Davide Geneletti, Relu Giuca, Miguel Inácio, Erwann Lagabrielle, Sabine Lange, Solen Le Clec'h, Zhi Yi Vanessa Lim, Ulla Mörtberg, Stoyan Nedkov, Ana Paula Portela, Anna Porucznik, Tudor Racoviceanu, Paula Rendón, Daniela Ribeiro, Joana Seguin, Mateja Šmid Hribar, Vanya Stoycheva, Henrik Vejre, Christos Zoumides, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey

Abstract

Ecosystem services (ES) assessments are rarely integrated into decision-making processes, with uncertainties often cited as a major barrier. While various uncertainties, such as modelling and data uncertainties, are inherent in ES assessments, their role in uptake of ES assessment results in decision-making remains unclear. We conducted a semi-systematic literature review of scientific papers assessing ES to reveal how uncertainties in ES assessments relate to ES uptake, i.e., the potential use of ES assessment results by decision makers. We performed logistic regressions to analyse the influence of three main sources of uncertainty on ES uptake, i.e., (i) modelling uncertainties, (ii) uncertainties related to qualitative and quantitative descriptions of scenarios, and (iii) uncertainties related to the transfer of ES assessment results into decision-making. Furthermore, we investigated if stakeholder involvement plays a role in ES uptake. First, and most importantly, the results indicate that clarifying the policy context can decrease decision uncertainty and thus improve ES uptake. Referring to a specific policy, following a decisive study purpose and documenting the intended policy entry point are factors that significantly enhance ES uptake. Second, the way how ES are modelled is related to ES uptake. Our results show that using multiple models to assess ES significantly promotes ES uptake. Third, involving stakeholders in ES assessments is significantly associated with increased documented uptake. We discuss that explicitly anchoring the assessment in a policy context increases the salience and timeliness of an ES study, assessing model uncertainties can lead to more credible results, and involving stakeholders can provide more legitimacy, which together increase the potential for ES assessments and their results to be used in decision-making. This study encourages future ES assessments to integrate uncertainties in order to support informed decision-making and promote the conservation and sustainable management of ecosystems and their services.

Organisationseinheit(en)

Institut für Erdsystemwissenschaften

Externe Organisation(en)

ETH Zürich
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
Eidg. Forschungsanstalt für Wald, Schnee und Landschaft (WSL)
Università degli Studi di Trento
Universitatea din București
Københavns Universitet
Ecostack Innovations
HUN-REN Centre for Ecological Research
Malta College of Arts, Science and Technology
The Cyprus Institute
Universidade do Porto
University of Minho
Mykolas Romeris University
Universite de La Reunion
Universität Wageningen (WUR)
Royal Institute of Technology (KTH)
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS)
Universität Rey Juan Carlos (URJC)
Scientific Research Centre of the Slovenian Academy of Sciences and Arts

Typ

Übersichtsarbeit

Journal

Ecosystem Services

Band

73

ISSN

2212-0416

Publikationsdatum

06.2025

Publikationsstatus

Veröffentlicht

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Globaler Wandel, Geografie, Planung und Entwicklung, Ökologie, Agrar- und Biowissenschaften (sonstige), Natur- und Landschaftsschutz, Management, Monitoring, Politik und Recht

Elektronische Version(en)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2025.101714 (Zugang: Offen)